Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
77%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is strongly favoured, around four-in-five that Flávio Bolsonaro finishes second in the first round. This reflects substantial confidence in that outcome, though the odds leave meaningful room for other candidates to place second. The probability fell slightly in the past day and has declined modestly over the week, suggesting some shift in market expectations away from this scenario.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of Brazil's presidential election on October 4, 2026, and No otherwise. Ties in vote totals will be broken according to the market's tie-breaking rules.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 77% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -4 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $157K |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-04 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Candidate registration deadlines and official campaign declarations between now and the election could reshape field composition and expectations about vote distribution.
- Polling data released closer to October 2026 may move the market if it significantly shifts views on which candidates are most competitive for second place.
- The first-round outcome itself settles the question definitively; no interpretation disputes are likely given that valid vote totals are an objective measure.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
