Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?
17%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this as odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a low expected probability that Tapia will leave office before the deadline. The odds rose sharply (+13 pts) over the past day, suggesting a shift in sentiment—possibly triggered by recent news or developments—even though the outcome remains a long shot at the current level.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Claudio Tapia ceases to be AFA President at any point between market creation and July 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and No if he remains in the role through that date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 17% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +13 pt |
| 7d change | +15 pt |
| Market volume | $198K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-19 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official announcement of resignation, firing, or removal would settle the market immediately.
- Thin time remaining until the July 2026 deadline constrains how far odds can drift in either direction.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.