Will Belgium win the World Cup?
2%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
Belgium is priced at a remote chance of winning the World Cup, reflecting long odds for a single nation to claim the title. The probability fell slightly over the past day, though it remained flat over the week, suggesting modest shifts in how traders view Belgium's tournament prospects relative to the global field.
How this market resolves
This market settles based on how far Belgium advances in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If Belgium wins the tournament, it resolves Yes; otherwise it resolves according to the furthest completed round Belgium reaches before elimination or the tournament's conclusion by July 19, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 2% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $220K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-19 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official FIFA decisions on tournament format, qualification, or disqualification would affect the settlement mechanism.
- Any disruption to the 2026 tournament schedule or completion could trigger the partial-tournament resolution clause; otherwise the July 19 deadline is firm.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
