Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
9%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at single-digit, unlikely odds, implying the market sees a low probability Lee Jae-myung leaves the presidency within the timeframe. The move fell slightly over the past day, a marginal shift that does not suggest a meaningful change in how traders are assessing the prospect of his departure.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be President of South Korea at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026. An announcement of resignation or removal before that date will immediately resolve it Yes; otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 9% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +2 pt |
| Market volume | $182K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official announcement of resignation or removal would trigger immediate resolution to Yes.
- Significant political developments or legal actions against Lee Jae-myung could shift odds as the December 2026 deadline approaches.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
