Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this scenario at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a 17% implied probability. The odds rose slightly (+1 pts) over the past day and have moved up by about 3 percentage points over the week, suggesting modest shifts in how traders are weighing geopolitical tensions. At this level, the market is treating a U.S. invasion as a low-probability tail risk rather than an expected outcome.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 17% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +3 pt |
| Market volume | $40.3M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any significant escalation in U.S.–Iran military tensions or official statements about military action could cause sharp repricing in either direction.
- The deadline is about 13 months away; narrowing time window means fewer events remain that could trigger a Yes resolution.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
