GEOPOLITICS
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
12%
Trajectory (1y → today), from Polymarket price history
Context
This asks whether the U.S. will launch a military invasion of Iran by end-2026; current odds suggest most traders view this as unlikely but non-negligible.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 12% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $39.3M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-06 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.