Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
10%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
This asks whether China will launch a military invasion of Taiwan within the next two-and-a-half years, with current odds suggesting most traders view this scenario as unlikely but non-trivial.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 10% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -2 pt |
| Market volume | $322K |
| Resolves by | 2027-06-30 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.