Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
91%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this as heavily favoured, near-certain at 91 percent, and has remained unchanged over the past 24 hours and week. This level reflects strong confidence that Farage will prevail in the contest, though the outcome is not treated as mathematically certain.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Nigel Farage wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If results are not known definitively by 30 June 2027, the market resolves to Other.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 91% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $491K |
| Resolves by | 2027-06-30 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Delayed election timing — if the by-election is not held or results not confirmed before the 30 June 2027 deadline, the market resolves to Other rather than Yes or No.
- Campaign developments could shift odds if they materially alter expectations of Farage's chances, though limited time to the deadline constrains how far odds can drift.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.