Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
4%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at a remote chance, reflecting the substantial political and institutional durability of the Iranian state. The probability has remained unchanged over the past day and risen only slightly over the past week, suggesting modest shifts in sentiment rather than a major reassessment of the likelihood of regime collapse within the timeframe.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Islamic Republic of Iran's current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 4% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $369K |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-30 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major internal instability, broad popular unrest, or military/security force defection could alter the probability trajectory before the deadline.
- Any official international declarations or consensus reporting on whether core regime structures have ceased to function would directly trigger resolution.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
