US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
43%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
The market is asking whether the US and Iran will finalize a comprehensive nuclear agreement by year-end 2026, following their June announcement of a negotiating framework.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 43% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -3 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $462K |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-30 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.