US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
38%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at a bit below even, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether a final deal will materialize within the timeframe. The odds have declined by 10 percentage points over the past week, suggesting growing skepticism among traders about the likelihood of a completed agreement by year-end.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran regarding Iran's nuclear program has been mutually signed or adopted by December 31, 2026. The resolution is based on the June 14, 2026 announcement of a written agreement and 60-day extendable negotiation period.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 38% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -10 pt |
| Market volume | $526K |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-30 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Progress reports or official statements from either government during the 60-day negotiation window and any agreed extensions would signal movement toward or away from a final deal.
- With roughly three months between the current date and the December 31 deadline, the pace of negotiations and any public announcements about sticking points or breakthroughs could shift market pricing.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
