Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
10%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
The question asks whether Iran's speaker will personally sign a bilateral U.S.-Iran agreement by end-July 2026; current odds suggest such a deal remains unlikely.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 10% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +4 pt |
| Market volume | $187K |
| Resolves by | 2026-08-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.