Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
3%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this at a remote chance, with odds unchanged over the past day and flat over the week. This reflects very low confidence that such a bilateral deal involving this individual will materialize and be signed within the specified timeframe.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signs a written agreement as an official representative to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 3% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $199K |
| Resolves by | 2026-08-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- A formal diplomatic agreement signed by both parties through this official would directly trigger resolution either way.
- The timeframe extends into mid-2026; sustained absence of progress toward a deal would likely keep odds depressed as the deadline approaches.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
