GEOPOLITICS
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
Trajectory (1y → today), from Polymarket price history
Context
This asks whether China will launch a military invasion of Taiwan within the next two years; current odds suggest traders view such an event as very unlikely but not impossible.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 4% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -2 pt |
| Market volume | $38.1M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-06 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.