Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a roughly 12% probability of a Chinese military invasion within the next three years. The odds have moved down slightly over the past week, suggesting traders are pricing in a modest decrease in near-term invasion risk. At this level, the market is treating a Taiwan invasion as a low-probability event over this timeframe.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan or its inhabited islands by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 12% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $1.7M |
| Resolves by | 2027-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any significant escalation in military activity around Taiwan or official statements from major parties could shift the odds sharply, as they would be direct inputs to invasion risk assessment.
- The long runway to end-2027 means the probability could drift substantially in either direction based on geopolitical developments; little time pressure exists to move the market now.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
