Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
6%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this scenario at single-digit, unlikely odds, reflecting a view that a U.S. military invasion of Venezuela remains a remote possibility over the next 14 months. The odds have remained unchanged over the past week, suggesting no recent shift in how traders are weighing the geopolitical risk. At this level, the market is pricing in a small but non-zero chance of a major escalation.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the United States initiates a military offensive designed to establish control over any part of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026. It resolves No otherwise.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 6% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $229K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any official U.S. military action or announcement of an offensive would settle the question directly.
- The resolution window extends through end of 2026, leaving substantial time for unforeseen developments to alter market pricing, though odds may remain anchored to base assumptions about policy continuity.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
