Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
6%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
The current odds suggest U.S. military intervention in Venezuela remains a tail-risk scenario rather than a plausible near-term outcome.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 6% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $229K |
| Resolves by | 2026-03-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.