Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
2%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
This asks whether Israel and Iran will reach a formal permanent peace agreement by mid-2026; the current odds suggest such a breakthrough remains extremely unlikely in that timeframe.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 2% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $517K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.