Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
2%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at a remote chance, reflecting the steep geopolitical barriers to such an agreement. The probability has remained unchanged over the past day and declined slightly over the past week, suggesting persistent skepticism among traders about the likelihood of a formal peace accord within the timeframe.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal—an agreement explicitly indicating that military hostilities between them have ended or will permanently cease—by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 2% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $537K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- A direct agreement signed by both governments would settle the market; absence of such a deal by the deadline would resolve it No.
- With roughly 18 months remaining, major shifts in regional conflict, diplomatic engagement, or political leadership could move odds, but thin precedent for Israel-Iran peace accords keeps the bar high.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
