Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
2%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
At a remote chance, this market reflects extremely low expectations that Iran will make such a commitment within the timeframe. The odds have remained unchanged over 24 hours, though they have drifted down slightly over the past week, suggesting sustained skepticism about the likelihood of a public Iranian pledge to halt uranium enrichment.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if Iran publicly agrees or pledges to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET—either unilaterally or through an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any other outcome resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 2% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $883K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official announcement or diplomatic agreement involving Iran would be the only trigger for resolution; absence of such a statement before July 31, 2026 settles the market as No.
- Nearly two years remain before the deadline, leaving room for negotiation dynamics to shift, though the current pricing implies markets see major obstacles to such a pledge.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
