GEOPOLITICS
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
2%
Trajectory (1y → today), from Polymarket price history
Context
The current odds suggest markets view an Iranian commitment to cease uranium enrichment by month-end as extremely unlikely given ongoing tensions.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 2% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | -5 pt |
| Market volume | $870K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-06 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.