Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
23%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at roughly one-in-four odds, suggesting traders see it as unlikely but not remote. The probability has weakened by 7 points over the past week, while remaining unchanged in the last 24 hours, indicating a gradual shift toward skepticism about an agreement materializing within the timeframe.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Iran publicly announces an official pledge to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026—either as a unilateral statement or as part of an agreement with the U.S., Israel, or another party. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 23% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -7 pt |
| Market volume | $1.3M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official Iranian announcement or multilateral agreement on uranium enrichment would directly trigger resolution; absence of such a statement before end of 2026 sets the No outcome.
- Nearly two years remain until the deadline, leaving time for diplomatic shifts, though the recent downward drift suggests the market is becoming more doubtful of a deal.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
