Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
6%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this scenario at single-digit, unlikely odds, indicating traders assess a formal congressional war declaration against Iran as a remote possibility over the next two years. Odds have remained unchanged over the past week and day, suggesting no recent news has shifted market sentiment on this outcome.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Congress formally declares war on Iran through an official act between now and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves No. A formal declaration of war under Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution is required; authorizations for use of military force do not qualify.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 6% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $634K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- A major escalation in US–Iran hostilities or a direct military attack could raise the probability, though formal war declarations remain politically and procedurally demanding even in crisis.
- Congress's composition and leadership, as well as any statements from the executive branch about Iran, may influence how traders view the likelihood before the end of 2026.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
