Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
14%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting substantial skepticism that Iran will make such a pledge within the timeframe. The probability rose slightly (+1 pts) over the past day, suggesting modest recent optimism, though the 7-day trend shows a net decline of 3 points, indicating underlying downward pressure on the likelihood over a longer window.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET—either through a unilateral announcement or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 14% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $2.0M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any official Iranian statement or diplomatic agreement involving uranium stockpile surrender would directly trigger resolution.
- Time remaining before the end of 2026 constrains how much further the odds can move; major geopolitical shifts in U.S.–Iran or Israel–Iran relations could shift the probability sharply closer to the deadline.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.