US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
12%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), meaning traders see it as a low-probability event. The odds have remained unchanged over the past day and dipped slightly over the week, suggesting modest skepticism about the scenario materializing within the two-year window.
How this market resolves
This market settles Yes if the US government or military officially announces or confirms possession of any quantity of Iranian enriched uranium by December 31, 2026. It settles No otherwise.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 12% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $1.8M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official US government or military announcement would directly trigger resolution either way.
- The extended timeline to end of 2026 leaves room for diplomatic developments or geopolitical shifts that could alter the probability, though current market positioning reflects skepticism.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
