Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
4%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at a remote chance, reflecting how unlikely a change in control of the island is within the timeframe. The probability fell slightly over the past day, suggesting modest recent conviction toward the status quo persisting, though the 7-day move shows some minor upward pressure on the Yes side overall. At this level, the market is treating such a geopolitical shift as highly improbable in the next roughly twenty months.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian governmental or military control by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority having established control. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 4% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +2 pt |
| Market volume | $773K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- A significant military or political event affecting Iranian territorial control would be the main driver; absent major upheaval, the current low probability is likely to persist.
- The August 31, 2026 deadline is still distant, leaving room for unexpected developments, but the remote baseline reflects that such a change is not priced as a plausible near-term scenario.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
