Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
44%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is priced a bit below even, suggesting traders view the prospect as less likely than a coin flip. The odds rose slightly over the past day, but remain down substantially over the past week, indicating downward pressure overall on the probability Iran implements such a policy within the timeframe.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if Iran officially announces and begins collecting mandatory fees, tolls, charges, or tariffs from commercial vessels for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 44% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +2 pt |
| 7d change | -12 pt |
| Market volume | $192K |
| Resolves by | 2026-08-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official Iranian government announcement of a new mandatory fee policy would directly settle the question; absence of such a formal move before the deadline would push it toward No.
- The question hinges on Iran's official policy action, not speculation—only a public announcement coupled with actual collection attempts qualifies.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
