Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
2%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at a remote chance, with odds unchanged over the past day and down slightly over the past week. At this level, traders are assessing a durable agreement between the two parties as highly unlikely within the timeframe, though not impossible.
How this market resolves
This market settles Yes if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal—an agreement explicitly stating that military hostilities have ended or will permanently cease—by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it settles No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 2% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $1.1M |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any formal agreement announcement by either party or intermediaries would directly determine the outcome; the absence of one approaching the deadline would lock in a No resolution.
- Thin time and extreme baseline skepticism mean only a major diplomatic breakthrough or shift in conflict dynamics could move odds materially before July 2026.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
