Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
13%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
This asks whether Hezbollah will announce official disarmament by year-end 2026, with current odds suggesting it's seen as unlikely.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 13% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -2 pt |
| 7d change | -4 pt |
| Market volume | $2.0M |
| Resolves by | 2026-03-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.