Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
12%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting skepticism that such an announcement will occur. Over the past week, implied probability has declined by 4 percentage points, suggesting traders are pricing an even lower chance of disarmament. At this level, traders view a formal disarmament announcement as a long-shot outcome.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Hezbollah's Secretary-General or direct successor officially announces the organization will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any other outcome resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 12% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -4 pt |
| Market volume | $2.0M |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official statement from Hezbollah's Secretary-General or acknowledged successor would directly settle the market either way; the absence of such an announcement by year-end 2026 would trigger a No resolution.
- The resolution mechanism requires only an official announcement of intent to disarm, not completion of disarmament itself—watch for whether any leadership statements or peace agreements include such language.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
