Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
41%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is priced a bit below even at 41%, indicating traders see a ceasefire by year-end 2026 as less likely than not. Odds rose slightly over the past day, a modest upward shift that suggests marginal softening of near-term skepticism, though the probability remains solidly in the minority range.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if there is a ceasefire agreement—a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine—that is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 41% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $2.0M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official statements from either or both governments announcing a ceasefire would immediately clarify the outcome.
- Credible reporting of a mutually agreed suspension could trigger resolution before any formal dual announcement.
- About two years remain until the deadline, allowing substantial time for diplomatic developments or battlefield shifts to alter trader positioning.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
