Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at single-digit, unlikely odds, reflecting broad skepticism that Iran will conduct a nuclear test within the next two years. The odds have moved down 1 percentage point over the past week, though they remained unchanged over the last 24 hours, suggesting modest but not urgent shifting in market sentiment toward lower probability.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Iran conducts an intentional non-combat detonation of a nuclear device producing a nuclear chain reaction by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET; otherwise it resolves No. Accidents and radiological dispersal devices do not count.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 5% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $221K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- A confirmed Iranian nuclear test would immediately resolve the market Yes; conversely, any formal Iranian commitment to refrain from testing or major diplomatic agreement on nuclear constraints could reinforce the low odds.
- Just over two years remain before the December 2026 deadline, limiting the window for major escalation or geopolitical shifts that might alter the baseline assessment.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
