Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
7%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market currently shows single-digit, unlikely odds of Rodríguez stepping down as leader by the end of 2026. The probability fell slightly over the past day, suggesting modest downward reassessment of the risk of leadership change over roughly the next two years. At this level, traders are pricing a low but non-zero chance of an interruption to her tenure.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Delcy Rodríguez ceases to be leader of Venezuela at any point between now and December 31, 2026; an announcement of resignation or removal before that date triggers immediate Yes resolution. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 7% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | -2 pt |
| Market volume | $167K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any formal announcement of resignation, removal, or succession would immediately settle the market to Yes; absence of such news keeps it tracking toward No.
- Nearly two years remain until resolution — enough time for political developments to shift market odds, but thin enough that major news of instability could move it quickly.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
