Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
79%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices Maduro's continued leadership as strongly favoured, around four-in-five. The probability has moved down slightly over the past week, though it remained unchanged in the last 24 hours, suggesting modest erosion in confidence but no recent shock. At this level, the market is pricing a significant but far from certain chance that he remains in office through the end of 2026.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Nicolás Maduro is the official head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET, based on formal appointment, confirmation if required, and swearing in, or official government confirmation. It resolves No if someone else holds that position on that date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 79% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -2 pt |
| Market volume | $2.1M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official announcements about Venezuela's government or leadership transitions would directly settle the outcome.
- Time remaining until the December 31, 2026 deadline allows considerable room for political developments to shift expectations.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
