Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
28%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this at roughly one-in-four odds, reflecting skepticism that entry will occur within the timeframe. Odds rose slightly (+2 pts) over the past day, suggesting a modest uptick in conviction among traders that a visit might happen, though the probability remains low and indicates the event is seen as unlikely by the market.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if María Corina Machado physically enters Venezuelan terrestrial territory at any point between now and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves No. Airspace or maritime entry alone does not count.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 28% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +2 pt |
| 7d change | +2 pt |
| Market volume | $192K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any credible reporting of a crossing into Venezuelan territory would likely trigger resolution to Yes immediately.
- With roughly two years until the deadline, significant political shifts or changes in security conditions could move odds in either direction before expiration.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
