Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
9%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this at single-digit, unlikely odds, reflecting skepticism that Trump will make such an endorsement within the timeframe. Odds fell slightly over the past day, suggesting marginal erosion in conviction, though the overall probability remains low and the move modest relative to total volume.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026; it resolves No if he endorses another individual or makes no such endorsement by that date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 9% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $113K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- A public Trump statement endorsing or preferring Machado would resolve this immediately to Yes; any endorsement of a different Venezuelan political figure would immediately resolve it to No.
- About one year remains until the December 31, 2026 deadline, allowing time for political developments or statements but also constraining the window for such an endorsement to occur.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
