Will Venezuela become 51st state?
3%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market assigns a remote chance to Venezuelan annexation, with odds unchanged over the past day and holding flat over the week. At this level, traders are pricing this as an extremely unlikely scenario within the specified timeframe, reflecting the enormous legal, diplomatic, and geopolitical barriers such an outcome would face.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026. An official announced agreement to do so counts, even if implementation is planned for later. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 3% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $372K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official U.S.–Venezuela agreement announced before year-end 2026 would immediately settle the question; no such agreement has materialized despite the resolution date approaching.
- Roughly one year remains until the deadline — limited time for either a dramatic geopolitical shift or a formal annexation process to occur.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
