Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
83%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome as strongly favoured, around four-in-five. The probability has remained unchanged over the past day and fallen only marginally over the week, suggesting relatively stable conviction among traders that this individual will hold de facto state power by year-end 2026. At this level, the market is treating the scenario as more likely than not, but with meaningful uncertainty left.
How this market resolves
This market resolves based on who de facto holds and exercises the powers of head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET — specifically, whoever exercises primary governing authority and effective control over the armed forces and national institutions at that moment. The outcome will be determined on that date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 83% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $3.0M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Changes in Iran's political or succession dynamics could shift expectations of who will exercise de facto governing authority by the end of 2026.
- The definition of 'de facto' authority may require interpretation at settlement — ambiguity over who truly controls key institutions or the armed forces could affect resolution.
- Less than two years remain until the December 31, 2026 deadline, limiting time for large shifts in the political landscape.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
