Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
75%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
Magdalena Andersson is strongly favoured, around four-in-five to be the next Swedish Prime Minister. Odds have moved up slightly over the past week, but remained unchanged over the last day, suggesting stable market pricing with modest confidence shifts rather than major new developments.
How this market resolves
This market settles by September 13, 2026, based on who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 75% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $108K |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-13 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Parliamentary outcomes on or near the September 2026 election date will directly determine the next PM; major shifts in polling or party coalitions could move odds significantly before then.
- Official appointment of any candidate ahead of the election, or major leadership changes within competing parties, could alter market expectations.
- Over a year remains until resolution, leaving substantial time for political conditions to shift.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
