Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
40%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices Eizenkot's chances at a bit below even, suggesting significant competition for the top post. The odds rose slightly over the past day, indicating modest recent confidence, while the broader seven-day move shows underlying support has grown modestly. At this probability level, the market sees him as a plausible but far from favored contender among Israeli political figures.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Gadi Eizenkot is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the parliamentary election scheduled for October 27, 2026, or any earlier election called before that date. It resolves No if another individual becomes Prime Minister under those conditions.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 40% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +2 pt |
| Market volume | $1.2M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any early election call would trigger immediate resolution based on who is sworn in afterward; the current October 2026 date leaves ample time for political shifts.
- Major developments in Israeli coalition dynamics or leadership positioning before the election could shift how markets weigh his chances against other potential candidates.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
