Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
50%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this at roughly even odds, with no change over the past week. This level suggests genuine uncertainty about whether Troy Jackson will be the Democratic nominee on the July 27 deadline, reflecting a competitive or unsettled nomination process.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Troy Jackson is the Maine Democratic Party's apparent nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election as of July 27 at 11:59 PM ET, and No otherwise. The resolution accounts for the possibility that a nominee may be replaced between a July 13 withdrawal deadline and July 27.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 50% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $91K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-27 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any announcement of a voluntary withdrawal by the current or presumed nominee before July 13 at 5:00 PM ET would trigger the replacement window and directly affect the odds.
- Activity and statements from Maine Democratic Party leadership between July 13 and July 27 could signal whether Jackson is likely to be selected or confirmed as the nominee.
- The narrow window between the withdrawal deadline and final resolution on July 27 limits time for significant odds movement after July 13.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.