Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
94%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is heavily favoured, near-certain at 94% implied probability, suggesting traders view Craig as the strong frontrunner. The odds have moved up 3 percentage points over the past week and remained unchanged in the last 24 hours, indicating a modest recent drift toward Yes with recent stabilization.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Bev Craig wins the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election scheduled for July 30, 2026, and No otherwise. Only the elected mayor from that election counts; interim or temporary appointments do not trigger a Yes resolution.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 94% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +3 pt |
| Market volume | $137K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-30 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The election is scheduled for late July 2026, leaving time for campaign developments or political shifts to move odds, though the current probability reflects existing expectations.
- Official election results announced on or shortly after July 30, 2026 would definitively settle the market; any delay past the June 30, 2027 deadline would trigger a No resolution.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
