Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
61%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices Bass as a slight favourite, just over even, implying about three in five odds of victory. The market has remained unchanged over the past day, though it has drifted up slightly over the past week, suggesting modest growing confidence in her candidacy relative to other potential contenders.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election, scheduled for June 2, 2026, or a potential runoff on November 3, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority. Resolution will be based on consensus of credible reporting.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 61% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $661K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major shifts in candidate entry or withdrawal could alter the field and Bass's path to victory.
- Changes in local economic or political conditions before June 2026 may sway voter sentiment and market expectations.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
