Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
96%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is heavily favoured, near-certain at 96%, reflecting strong confidence that Donalds will secure the Republican nomination. The probability has remained unchanged over the past week, suggesting stable trader conviction at this elevated level despite the race still being more than a year away.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Byron Donalds wins the Republican Primary for Florida Governor on August 18, 2026, and No otherwise. Resolution is based on the first official announcement of results from the Florida Republican Party.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 96% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $151K |
| Resolves by | 2026-08-18 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Entry or withdrawal of major rival candidates could shift the primary dynamics and odds.
- Official primary schedule changes or cancellations would alter resolution conditions.
- Thin time until August 2026 limits how much odds can realistically move before primary results are known.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
