Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
82%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
Mike Mazzei is strongly favoured, around four-in-five to win the primary. The market has moved up slightly over the past week but remained unchanged in the last 24 hours, suggesting broad consensus among traders on his frontrunner status, though meaningful uncertainty persists about the field and primary dynamics.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Mike Mazzei wins the Republican Primary for Oklahoma Governor on June 16, 2026, including any runoff or second round. It resolves No if another candidate wins, or resolves to Other if no Republican primary takes place.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 82% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $79K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Entry or withdrawal of major rival candidates could shift the odds significantly before the June 2026 primary date.
- Any significant polling or endorsement developments in Oklahoma Republican circles may move the market, though time remains until the election.
- Changes to primary rules or cancellation of the race would resolve the market to Other rather than Yes or No.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
