Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
97%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is heavily favoured, near-certain at 97%, reflecting strong expectations that the Workers' Party will nominate Lula by the August 15 deadline. The odds rose slightly (+1 pts) over the past day, suggesting marginal increases in confidence, though the 7-day move shows no net change. At this level, traders are pricing in only a small chance of the party either nominating a different candidate or failing to meet the filing deadline.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Workers' Party files a candidate registration application naming Lula for the 2026 Brazil presidential election with the Superior Electoral Court by August 15, 2026 at 7:00 PM Brasília time. It resolves No if the party does not do so by that deadline.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 97% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $96K |
| Resolves by | 2026-08-15 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official announcements from the Workers' Party about its 2026 nomination decision would directly confirm or contradict the market's expectation.
- Any unexpected political developments or party leadership changes between now and mid-August could shift the odds, though time remaining before the deadline constrains how far conviction can move.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
