Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
3%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at a remote chance, reflecting the historical rarity of STF justices being removed through impeachment or criminal responsibility trials. The odds have remained unchanged over the past 24 hours and week, suggesting stable market consensus that such a removal is unlikely within the timeframe.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if any justice of Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed as a result of impeachment or trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 3% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $82K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- A formal impeachment proceeding or criminal responsibility trial initiated against an STF justice could shift odds significantly if it appears to gain political or legal momentum.
- The deadline is roughly two years away; material shifts in political conditions or justice conduct could alter the assessment as the resolution date approaches.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
