Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
21%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing Kim Farington's chances at roughly one-in-four odds, reflecting a competitive but minority position in the race. The probability has moved down 3 percentage points over the past week, while remaining unchanged in the last 24 hours, suggesting modest recent skepticism but no sharp shift in sentiment.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Kim Farington wins the Republican Primary for U.S. Senator from Virginia, and No otherwise. Resolution will be based on the first official announcement of results from the Virginia Republican Party, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting if official results are delayed or unavailable.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 21% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $470K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official results from the Virginia Republican Primary will directly settle this — the timing and credibility of that announcement matters for resolution.
- No fixed deadline is specified; resolution depends on when the primary occurs and results are certified or reported by consensus.
- Candidate performance, endorsements, or primary scheduling changes before the vote could shift odds, but the market has limited time sensitivity without a named date.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
