Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
4%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at a remote chance, with the implied probability unchanged over the past day. The 7-day move of 2 points reflects modest recent interest, but the current level suggests the market sees this specific range as an unlikely outcome relative to other possible distributions of governorships after the 2026 midterms.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Republican Party holds exactly 28 or 29 governorships after all gubernatorial elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. It settles based on official results by that date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 4% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +2 pt |
| Market volume | $557K |
| Resolves by | 2026-11-03 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The exact number of Republican-held governorships will depend on which seats flip in competitive races; any shift in the fundamentals of multiple races could move the odds.
- Thin time between now and November 2026 means the odds will mostly reflect changing expectations about election outcomes rather than new data.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
