Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
55%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market currently shows roughly even odds that Peltola wins, having risen slightly over the past day even as it fell over the past week. A probability at this level reflects substantial uncertainty about the outcome, with the race priced as highly competitive between the main candidates.
How this market resolves
This market settles based on who wins the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election scheduled for November 3, 2026, including any runoffs. If election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other."
| Implied probability (Yes) | 55% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | -5 pt |
| Market volume | $177K |
| Resolves by | 2026-11-03 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major shifts in candidate positioning or campaign developments could move odds before election day.
- Confirmation of results by the specified sources near the November 2026 deadline will trigger resolution; extended delays toward the July 2027 cutoff create resolution risk.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
