Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
73%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
Democrats are strongly favoured, around four-in-five to win this seat. The implied probability fell slightly over the past day, suggesting modest recent skepticism, though the market has drifted upward by 3 points over the week. At this level, the market is pricing in a substantial but not overwhelming Democratic advantage in the race.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, including any runoff. It settles according to the official result of that election.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 73% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +3 pt |
| Market volume | $86K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The candidate fields for both parties will take shape in the coming months; changes in nominee strength could shift odds meaningfully.
- No fixed resolution date is specified, so the market will remain open until the 2026 election is held and certified.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
