Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
96%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is heavily favoured, near-certain that the elections will happen as scheduled, with implied probability at 96%. This pricing fell slightly over the past 24 hours, though it remained essentially flat over the week. The near-certain level reflects minimal market concern about significant disruption to the standard election date.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the 2026 US Midterm Elections occur on November 3, 2026, and No otherwise. Resolution is determined by official US government information or consensus of credible reporting, and the market closes by the end of 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 96% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $230K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official government action suspending or rescheduling the election would be the primary mover; absent such extraordinary intervention, the odds are unlikely to shift materially.
- Resolution depends on whether elections occur specifically on the stated date—ambiguity about date changes versus outright cancellation could affect how credible reporting is interpreted.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
