Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
81%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome as strongly favoured, around four-in-five, reflecting an expectation that Utah is more likely than not to redistrict before 2026. The probability fell slightly over the past day, though it has risen modestly over the week, suggesting the underlying assessment remains stable but with minor recent softening. At this level, traders are pricing in that formal adoption of a new map is the base case, though meaningful uncertainty remains.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Utah formally adopts and enacts into law a new congressional district map to be used for the 2026 midterm elections; it resolves No otherwise. The resolution date is November 3, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 81% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +3 pt |
| Market volume | $88K |
| Resolves by | 2026-11-03 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- State legislative action or court rulings on Utah's redistricting timeline and authority would directly determine the outcome.
- Any official announcement of a new map's formal adoption would settle the market, while expiration of the deadline with no new map enacted would resolve it No.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
