Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
49%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market currently shows roughly even odds for Iotova to win, indicating substantial uncertainty about the outcome. The probability has remained unchanged over the past day and declined slightly over the past week, suggesting modest softening in confidence but no dramatic shift in how traders are pricing her chances.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Iliana Iotova wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, expected to be held in Fall 2026, including any second round. If the result is not determined by the end of 2027, the market resolves to Other.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 49% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $81K |
| Resolves by | 2026-11-30 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official election results or declaration by Bulgarian authorities would settle the market; absent that, the deadline approaches at the end of 2027.
- Any major political developments or polling shifts before Fall 2026 could move odds, though time remains before the election period.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
