Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
55%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market currently shows roughly even odds that the Fed will pause at all three consecutive decisions, with a 7-day decline of 11 percentage points suggesting recent skepticism about back-to-back pauses. At this level, traders see the scenario as plausible but uncertain—slightly favoring the outcome but with substantial doubt about whether all three meetings will result in no rate change.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Federal Reserve holds its target federal funds rate steady (no change to the upper bound) at all three of its scheduled FOMC meetings in June, July, and September. It resolves by September 16, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 55% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -11 pt |
| Market volume | $67K |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-16 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Economic data between now and each FOMC meeting (inflation, employment, growth) could shift expectations about whether a pause remains appropriate at each decision point.
- Market pricing of rate expectations tends to move quickly on new macro data; thin time before the final September meeting limits how much odds can adjust if conviction on the scenario shifts late.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.