Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this at roughly even odds, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the Fed will shift policy between now and October. The move over the past week pushed odds up by 9 points, suggesting growing market expectations that at least one of the three decisions will differ from the others. At this level, traders are split on whether economic conditions will prompt the Fed to change course partway through this three-month window.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Fed's target federal funds rate decision differs across the three FOMC meetings scheduled for late July, mid-September, and late October 2025. It resolves No if the Fed holds the upper bound of its target rate steady across all three meetings or changes it identically each time.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 48% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +9 pt |
| Market volume | $102K |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-28 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Economic data releases before each FOMC meeting—inflation reports, employment data, and GDP revisions—could shift expectations for rate decisions and move the odds.
- The exact wording of Fed guidance and economic projections after each meeting will signal whether consistency or divergence is likely in the remaining meetings.
- The resolution window extends to late October 2026, but the relevant decisions occur by late October 2025; any surprises in the second or third meeting will become clear only as those dates approach.