Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
19%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a low perceived chance of year-over-year inflation exceeding 4.5% at any point during 2026. The probability moved unchanged over the past day and down 1 percentage point over the week, suggesting modest recent skepticism about the likelihood of such a rise.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Consumer Price Index rises more than 4.5% over any 12-month period ending in a month during 2026, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly reports. It resolves No otherwise, by December 31, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 19% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $114K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Monthly BLS CPI releases throughout 2026 will be the direct triggers—any single month's 12-month reading above 4.5% settles the market Yes immediately.
- The resolution hinges on *any* 12-month period in 2026, not a single baseline, so even a brief inflationary spike could flip the outcome.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
